An Agro-Pastoral Phenological Water Balance Framework for Monitoring and Predicting Growing Season Water Deficits and Drought Stress

Sharing simple ideas across a broad community of practitioners helps them to work together more effectively. For this reason, drought early warning systems spend considerable effort on describing how hazards are detected and defined. Well-articulated definitions provide shared basis for collaboration, response planning, impact mitigation. One very useful measure agricultural stress has been the “Water Requirement Satisfaction Index” (WRSI). In study, we develop new, simpler metric water requirement satisfaction, Phenological Water Balance (PWB). We describe metric, compare it WRSI yield statistics in food-insecure region (east Africa), show can be easily combined with analog-based rainfall forecasts produce end-of-season estimates growing season deficits. dry areas, PWB is similar WRSI. these regions, that coupling between deficits increased reference evapotranspiration amplifies impacts droughts. wet other hand, our new provides information about excess—seasons so they may not conducive good outcomes. Finally, present PWB-based forecast example, demonstrating framework used translate assumptions seasonal outcomes into predictions Effective humanitarian relief efforts rely projections design deploy appropriate targeted responses. At present, difficult combine gridded satellite-gauge precipitation climate forecasts. Our overcome obstacle. Future extensions could use contextualize supply indicators, like actual values derived from satellite observations or hydrologic models.